December 21, 2024

Mr Obama, Please Don’t Read This

June 10, 2010 by Leave a Comment

US Companies Build Massive Cash Reserves Based on Economic Worries

Wall Street Journal – U.S. companies are holding more cash in the bank than at any point on record, underscoring persistent worries about financial markets and about the sustainability of the economic recovery.

The Federal Reserve reported Thursday that nonfinancial companies had socked away $1.84 trillion in cash and other liquid assets as of the end of March, up 26% from a year earlier and the largest-ever increase in records going back to 1952.

Idle cash of almost $2 trillion is a massive amount, but let’s put that into perspective by comparing that to the spending habits of the U.S. Government.  If the U.S. Government expropriated every dollar of cash held by U.S. companies, it would barely cover 16 months of U.S. deficits.   The entire $1.84 trillion of cash held by U.S. companies would pay for a mere 6 months of U.S government spending.

In the government’s last fiscal year, receipts were $2.1 trillion and spending totaled $3.5 trillion for a deficit on $1.415 trillion.   Latest figures from the U.S. Treasury indicate that the current fiscal year’s deficit will exceed last year’s deficit – here are the numbers month by month.

FISCAL 2010           RECEIPTS        OUTLAYS            DEFICIT

$MILLIONS

OCTOBER……………..135,294              311,657             176,363

NOVEMBER…………..133,564              253,851             120,287

DECEMBER…………….218,918              310,628              91,410

JANUARY………………205,240              247,874              42,634

FEBRUARY…………….107,520              328,429            220,909

MARCH……………………153,358             218,745              65,387

APRIL………………………245,260             327,950              82,689

MAY…………………………146,795             282,722            135,927

YEAR TO DATE      1,345,950          2,281,566            935,606

Graphical Representation of Looming Disaster

Government spending is now almost twice total receipts.   How long can any entity continue at this pace before hitting an economic brick wall?

chart

Source: Department of the Treasury

Fed Chairman Bernanke recently warned that unless deficits are reduced, the U.S. could become the next Greece, but the economy is currently too fragile to initiate deficit reductions.  Translation – we are facing social and economic disaster from out of control deficit spending, but we can’t do anything about it right now.  Conclusion – the government will need trillions every year for the foreseeable future to cover the gap between receipts and spending.

Let’s hope the President doesn’t connect the dots here – $trillions needed by the government while companies are sitting on $trillions that they are not investing, spending or paying to shareholders – not very patriotic!   After having already proposed a plethora of tax increases on everything possible, “idle corporate cash” could easily become a very tempting target.   Let’s hope Mr. Obama does not read this post.

Filed Under: Government Deficits, Government spending, Sovereign Default Tagged With: ,

California’s Crash Omen of Nation’s Future

May 22, 2009 by 2 Comments

Borrow and Spend = Crash and Burnbig bag of indeterminate money

California has always been the trend setter for the nation but never more so than today as it totters on the edge of insolvency.  The theory that States or Nations cannot go bankrupt due to their unlimited taxing powers has reached its limits as California voters have resoundingly rejected further tax increases.  Without a Federal bailout, the State of California will be forced to make massive budget cuts.  The illusion of a free lunch, paid for with borrowed money is now replaced by the harsh reality of a mortgaged future.

California may be in the spotlight today as the first major state to collapse financially, but most of the Nation’s other 49 states are not far behind.  Tax revenues have declined in 45 other states by almost 13% in the first quarter and are likely to continue declining as both corporate and personal incomes decline.  For the first time ever, the biggest source of revenue for the States is from the Federal Government.  Almost all 50 States are at the precipice.

Given the absolute financial disaster occurring in almost every State, how long can it be before the ability of the US Government to pay its debts is called into question?  The United States is not an abstract construction with a separate economic destiny,  immune to events in the rest of the nation.  The United States are 50 States joined as one.  If nearly every one of the 50 states is an economic train wreck, the conclusion for Uncle Sam  is obvious.  Can the whole be greater than the sum of its parts?

Numerous doubts are being aired daily about the credit rating of the United States.  Consider some comments from today:

Britain’s Debt Omen

For a warning about America’s fiscal future, consider yesterday’s news from Britain. United Kingdom stocks, bond futures and sterling all fell after Standard & Poor’s lowered the country’s credit outlook.

But in both the U.K. and U.S. today, the politicians in power equate government spending with growth. So on present course, Britain’s credit future could well be America’s in the coming years as U.S. spending soars.

Dollar Is Dirt, Treasuries Are Toast, AAA Is Gone

Several policy missteps suggest that investors should stop trusting — and lending to — the U.S. government.

“All currencies are being debased dramatically by their central banks at extraordinary speeds and so in relative terms it appears there is no currency problem,”  In reality, however, paper money is highly vulnerable to a public catalyst that serves to acknowledge it is all merely vapor money.”

For the fiscal year ending Sept. 30, the Congressional Budget Office forecasts a record deficit of $1.75 trillion, almost four times the previous year’s $454.8 billion shortfall and about 13 percent of gross domestic product. Bear in mind that the target demanded of European nations wanting to join the euro was a deficit no greater than 3 percent of GDP.

David Walker, a former U.S. comptroller general, wrote in the Financial Times on May 12 that the U.S.’s top credit rating looks incompatible with “an accumulated negative net worth” of more than $11 trillion and “additional off-balance-sheet obligations” of $45 trillion. “One could even argue that our government does not deserve a triple A credit rating based on our current financial condition, structural fiscal imbalances and political stalemate,” he wrote.

Flip-Flops and Governance

Mr. Obama campaigned on “responsible fiscal policies,” arguing in a speech on the Senate floor in 2006 that the “rising debt is a hidden domestic enemy.”

However, Mr. Obama’s fiscally conservative words are betrayed by his liberal actions. He offers an orgy of spending and a bacchanal of debt. His budget plans a 25% increase in the federal government’s share of the GDP, a doubling of the national debt in five years, and a near tripling of it in 10 years.

US Officials Vow Fiscal Vigilance

Treasury Secretary Geithner and President Obama both acknowledge that out of control spending could eventually lead to default, credit market rejection and a lower standard of living as the cost of debt servicing destroys our standard of living.

Geithner Pledges To Cut Deficit

May 21 (Bloomberg) — Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said the Obama administration is committed to reducing the federal budget deficit after concerns rose that the U.S. debt rating may eventually be threatened with a downgrade.  He added that the target is reducing the gap to 3 percent of gross domestic product or smaller, from a projected 12.9 percent this year.

– the co-chief investment officer of Pacific Investment Management Co., said the U.S. “eventually” will lose its AAA grade.

Obama Says US Long-Term Debt Load “Unsustainable”

May 14 (Bloomberg) — President Barack Obama, calling current deficit spending “unsustainable,” warned of skyrocketing interest rates for consumers if the U.S. continues to finance government by borrowing from other countries.

“We can’t keep on just borrowing from China,” Obama said at a town-hall meeting in Rio Rancho, New Mexico, outside Albuquerque. “We have to pay interest on that debt, and that means we are mortgaging our children’s future with more and more debt.”

The Future Reality

The President and Treasury Secretary say what they have to say.  The reality is that the present course of unlimited credit expansion, quantitative easing, bailouts  and massive deficit spending will continue in an attempt to re-inflate asset values and stimulate spending.   The Government will not accept  alternatives that they view as being worse – deflation and a collapsing economy with civil unrest.  California will be bailed out like everyone else.

The course of action for long term wealth accumulation under the present circumstances seems obvious.   Avoid  an over concentration in paper assets (debt) that can be produced by governments in infinite quantity at zero cost.   Diversify into assets backed by 1) real services or goods that there will always be a demand for and 2) natural resources such as commodities, oil and gold.

Filed Under: Confidence, Economy, Government spending, printing money, Sovereign Default Tagged With: ,

America’s Triple A Credit Rating – At The Precipice?

May 13, 2009 by Leave a Comment

Black Swan Events Becoming Routine

Our Nation has avoided the decline into the abyss that many have been predicting during the economic crisis.  At the cost of approximately $13 trillion in government bailouts and guarantees the system has been held together but at a very high cost that future generations will bear through higher taxes or a much lower standard of living.

Our “prosperity through debt financed spending” philosophy has deeply indebted every sector of the economy.   Our leaders implore us to borrow and spend.  The US budget deficit is projected to hit $2 trillion dollar this year and continue indefinitely.

What we cannot borrow, we can simply print in unlimited amounts, imperiously oblivious to the serious risks and consequences of such financial folly.  Logical minds reject these unsound theories and realize that every nation has financial limitations,  whether we like it or not.  The risk of default by the United States, once considered unthinkable, is now a topic of debate by serious minds.  Consider the following from The Financial Times.

America’s Triple A Rating Is At Risk

Long before the current financial crisis, nearly two years ago, a little-noticed cloud darkened the horizon for the US government. It was ignored. But now that shadow, in the form of a warning from a top credit rating agency that the nation risked losing its triple A rating if it did not start putting its finances in order, is coming back to haunt us.

That warning from Moody’s focused on the exploding healthcare and Social Security costs that threaten to engulf the federal government in debt over coming decades. The facts show we’re in even worse shape now, and there are signs that confidence in America’s ability to control its finances is eroding.

Prices have risen on credit default insurance on US government bonds, meaning it costs investors more to protect their investment in Treasury bonds against default than before the crisis hit. It even, briefly, cost more to buy protection on US government debt than on debt issued by McDonald’s. Another warning sign has come from across the Pacific, where the Chinese premier and the head of the Peoples Bank of China have expressed concern about America’s longer-term credit worthiness and the value of the dollar.

The US government has had a triple A credit rating since 1917, but it is unclear how long this will continue to be the case.

For too long, the US has delayed making the tough but necessary choices needed to reverse its deteriorating financial condition. One could even argue that our government does not deserve a triple A credit rating based on our current financial condition, structural fiscal imbalances and political stalemate. The credit rating agencies have been wildly wrong before, not least with mortgage-backed securities.

One way out of these problems is for the president and Congress to create a “fiscal future commission” where everything is on the table, including budget controls, entitlement programme reforms and tax increases.

Recent research conducted for the Peterson Foundation shows that 90 per cent of Americans want the federal government to put its own financial house in order. It also shows that the public supports the creation of a fiscal commission by a two-to-one margin. Yet Washington still sleeps, and it is clear that we cannot count on politicians to make tough transformational changes on multiple fronts using the regular legislative process. We have to act before we face a much larger economic crisis. Let’s not wait until a credit rating downgrade. The time for Washington to wake up is now.

Our Nation’s future is being risked by a ruling class that continues to refuse to tell us what we need to be told – I thought we were promised that it was time for a change?

More on this topic

Alarm Sounded on Social Security – The financial health of the Social Security system has eroded more sharply in the past year than at any time since the mid-1990s, according to a government forecast that ratchets up pressure on the Obama administration and Congress to stabilize the retirement system that keeps many older Americans out of poverty.

Filed Under: Congress, Government spending, printing money, Sovereign Default Tagged With:

Chinese Likely To Halt Purchases Of US Treasury Debt

March 13, 2009 by 4 Comments

Nervous Times In China

The Chinese are learning the hard way about an old American banking story. The man who owes the bank $50,000 dollars on a secured loan may lay awake at night worrying about how he can repay the loan. If the same man owes the bank $5,000,000 of unsecured debt, it is probably the banker who is awake all night wondering if he is going to get paid.

Chinese Premier Wen sounds like he is having some sleepless nights worrying about whether or not the US will be able to repay the $700 billion that China invested in US treasury securities. In a remarkable statement, Premier Wen publicly stated that he is “worried” about the ability of the US to pay back its huge debts to China. As reported in Bloomberg, Wen is asking for assurances from the US that the debt is safe.

“We have lent a huge amount of money to the United States,” Wen said at a press briefing in Beijing today after the annual meeting of the legislature. “Of course we are concerned about the safety of our assets. To be honest, I am a little bit worried. I request the U.S. to maintain its good credit, to honor its promises and to guarantee the safety of China’s assets.”

U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton urged China, while visiting officials in Beijing on Feb. 22, to continue buying U.S. debt, which she called a “safe investment.”

“China is worried that the U.S. may solve its problems with the fiscal deficit and banks by printing money, which will stoke inflation,” said Zhao Qingming, a Beijing-based analyst at China Construction Bank Corp., the country’s second-biggest lender. “If the U.S. can make sure this won’t happen, then China will continue to invest.”

Delegates of China’s legislative advisory body suggested that the biggest foreign holder of U.S. debt diversify away from Treasuries into more risky assets at the annual meeting that started on March 3.

Jesse Wang, executive vice president of China Investment Corp., said on March 4 that his $200 billion sovereign wealth fund may invest in “undervalued” commodity assets. Zhang Guobao, head of the National Energy Administration, said China should invest more in commodities instead of hoarding the U.S. dollar, the official Xinhua News Agency reported on March 7.
China should seek to “fend off risks” as it diversifies its $1.95 trillion in foreign-exchange reserves and will safeguard its own interests, Wen said. Chinese investors held $696 billion of U.S. Treasuries as of Dec. 31, an increase of 46 percent from the prior year.

Chinese Concerns Justified

China is justified in worrying about its large US treasury investment, despite the worthless assurances from our Secretary of State. Congress is blithely spending money by the trillions, as Chairman Bernanke continues to speak of buying mortgage backed securities and long term treasuries. One of the major constraints on Chairman Bernanke’s desire to print money (via the purchase of US government debt) has, no doubt, been the worry about a potential backlash from China, the biggest buyer of US debt.

The heretofore mutually beneficial arrangement of China purchasing US debt with trade surpluses generated by American purchases of Chinese goods is drawing to a close. China’s trade surplus has all but evaporated, eliminating the need or ability of China to purchase additional US debt. In addition, the Chinese have made it clear that their national interests are best served by diversifying into commodities and other real assets, the value of which is not contingent upon an overleveraged debtor nation.
End Game Clear

As long as China continues to purchase US debt, Bernanke is constrained from blatantly printing money. As China throttles way back on its purchase of US debt, America will have three choices – 1. Borrow and spend less 2. Raise taxes tremendously or 3. Print money. Based on what we have seen so far, it will be some of number 2 and a lot of number 3.

The odds are that China will ultimately get its money back, but the value of what they receive will be far less than what they gave.

Filed Under: Bernanke, China, Federal Reserve, Sovereign Default, Uncategorized Tagged With: , , ,

Notable Links

February 19, 2009 by 1 Comment

Straight Talking Common Sense

Obama Must Destroy Detroit, So America Can Live – Evan Newmark

Dear President Obama,

Who said life was fair?

You’re in office less than a month and the markets already hate your presidency, your Treasury secretary and your economic stimulus plan.

It’s time for you to destroy Detroit, so that the rest of America can live.

Mr. President, it’s time for the bankruptcy of GM and Chrysler.

Now that may seem harsh. But you really have no choice. Look around you. Everybody in America has his hand out — California and the movie industry, New York and Wall Street, homebuilders and the millions of mortgage deadbeats.

You need to send a message to all America — and fast. No more Mr. Nice Guy and no more money. Reinventing America doesn’t mean bailing everyone out. It means stopping those things that just don’t work anymore.

But such a bold gamble could mark a turning point early in your term.

It would get Republicans behind you. It would get Wall Street and America’s trading partners behind you. And it would get even more Americans behind you. Americans know when something makes sense.

Remember Ronald Reagan and the air traffic controllers’ strike of 1981?

That’s how he reinvented America. Now, it’s your turn.

Some good thoughts – worth a full reading.  Only problem is it won’t happen because there is no common sense in Washington and Mr. Obama is not Ronald Reagan.

The Burning Platform

The $787 billion 1,074 page stimulus bill has been passed. President Obama has signed it. The market immediately dropped 500 points. It will have no impact on the economy in 2009. The bill will stimulate nothing but the National Debt. Within months, plans for another stimulus plan will be demanded by the Democratic led Congress because speed and the appearance of action are how politicians get reelected. When I see Senator Charles Schumer of New York make a speech on the floor of the Senate saying, “And let me say this to all of the chattering class that so much focuses on those little, tiny, yes, porky amendments, the American people really don’t care”, I want to throttle him.Only a U.S. Senator would consider $100 billion a little tiny pork. His words prove that our leaders are so corrupted and disconnected from real Americans that they are running this country for their own self interest and the interests of their corporate money backers. Abraham Lincoln, an honest and wise man by most accounts, knew that calling pork spending stimulus doesn’t make it stimulus.

The definition of unsustainable is, not able to be maintained or supported in the future. To me, a picture is worth a thousand words.

3
Source: Robert Shiller

As Congressional moron after Congressional moron goes on the usual Sunday talk show circuit and says we must stop home prices from falling, I wonder whether these people took basic math in high school. Are they capable of looking at a chart and understanding a long-term average? The median value of a U.S. home in 2000 was $119,600. It peaked at $221,900 in 2006. Historically, home prices have risen annually in line with CPI. If they had followed the long-term trend, they would have increased by 17% to $140,000. Instead, they skyrocketed by 86% due to Alan Greenspan’s irrational lowering of interest rates to 1%, the criminal pushing of loans by lowlife mortgage brokers, the greed and hubris of investment bankers and the foolishness and stupidity of home buyers. It is now 2009 and the median value should be $150,000 based on historical precedent. The median value at the end of 2008 was $180,100. Therefore, home prices are still 20% overvalued. Long-term averages are created by periods of overvaluation followed by periods of undervaluation. Prices need to fall 20% and could fall 30%. You will know we are at the bottom when the top shows on cable are Foreclose That House and Homeless Housewives of Orange County.

Instead of allowing the housing market to correct to its fair value, President Obama and Barney Frank will attempt to “mitigate” foreclosures. Mr. Frank has big plans for your tax dollars, “We may need more than $50 billion for foreclosure [mitigation]”. What this means is that you will be making your monthly mortgage payment and in addition you will be making a $100 payment per month for a deadbeat who bought more house than they could afford, is still watching a 52 inch HDTV, still eating in their perfect kitchens with granite countertops and stainless steel appliances. Barney thinks he can reverse the law of supply and demand by throwing your money at the problem. He will succeed in wasting billions of tax dollars and home prices will still fall 20% to 30%. Unsustainably high home prices can not be sustained. I would normally say that even a 3rd grader could understand this concept. But, instead I’ll say that even a U.S. Congressman should understand this.

Another common sense analysis by James Quinn well worth the entire read.  Markets are larger than any government and ultimately cannot be manipulated by government over the long term.  The United States Congress will waste trillions trying to support a housing market that will ultimately stabilize based on free market factors – not government manipulation and price supports.  If the government had the power to control the housing market, they would not have let it crash in the first place.

Greenspan Backs Bank Nationalization

The US government may have to nationalise some banks on a temporary basis to fix the financial system and restore the flow of credit, Alan Greenspan, the former Federal Reserve chairman, has told the Financial Times.

In an interview, Mr Greenspan, who for decades was regarded as the high priest of laisser-faire capitalism, said nationalisation could be the least bad option left for policymakers.

The one man who is probably the most responsible for creating the debt bomb explosion and global collapse has more advice for us.  Mr Greenspan, enjoy life with your $150,000 per speech fees along with your fine government pension.   But PLEASE stop giving us your damn advice.

The mad attempts to avoid any and all foreclosures is counter-productive. The foreclosure process is how an over-priced market returns back to normalcy.

Today at 12:15 am, we shall learn of the Obama administration’s new housing plan. I suspect it will have many of the same doomed features as all the other misguided housing plans floating around.

Before getting to those specifics, let’s revisit and recognize several truths:

• Home prices remain elevated;

• Artificially propping up prices is counter-productive;

• Home owers (No equity, 100%+ debt) who are in houses they cannot afford are going to have to move to homes or apartments they can afford;

• Foreclosures/REOs are often costly to banks; The lenders that made these bad loans to unqualified borrowers will suffer write-downs;

• It is not the responsibility of Taxpayers to bailout borrowers who are in over their heads, or lenders that made bad loans.

What are we likely to see from the White House today? I expect to see an over emphasis at stopping foreclosures; a reliance on foreclosure moratoriums; Involuntary loan modifications a/k/a cramdowns; and last, Interest rate deductions;

More sound, common sense advice from Barry Ritholtz.  The government’s constant stream of ridiculous “new plans” for solving the housing crisis with their Rube Goldberg mechanisms is sure to postpone any recovery or bottom in housing for decades.

Sovereign Default –  Which Domino Falls First?

It’s no longer a question of if, but where.  Will the first sovereign default occur in Eastern Europe or Asia?  The debt levels of many countries are no longer sustainable due to collapsing economies, destruction of asset/collateral values and the inability to obtain more credit.  Of the $5 trillion in loans made to emerging market countries, almost 75% of the lending was done by Western European banks.

Many countries no longer have the economic ability to service their debts.  Debts that cannot be paid, by definition, will be defaulted on.  The larger question is will the first sovereign default trigger a domino of defaults, resulting in a catastrophic series of defaults worldwide?

Courtesy Wall Street Journal

Filed Under: Bailout, Banking Industry, Deleveraging, Government spending, Sovereign Default Tagged With: , ,

Government Bond Buyers Demand Higher Yields

February 16, 2009 by 1 Comment

Massive Government Borrowing Raises Repayment Doubts

As governments worldwide attempt to sell massive amounts of debt, investors are beginning to question whether they are being properly compensated for default risk.  The assumption that government debt is risk free is being re-evaluated as debt service payments increase to an untenable percentage of government revenues.   Bond purchasers are further unnerved by the fact that there appears to be no end in sight to  mounting government deficits as nearly every sector of the global economy demands loans and cash bailouts.  Meanwhile, the collapse in corporate profits and massive job layoffs guarantees drastically lower government revenues at the same time that borrowing needs are escalating.

Recent events indicate that the capital markets may be unable or unwilling to fund unlimited government debt sales.

Threat To Government Debt

As countries compete for trillions of dollars of funding, markets are questioning long-held assumptions about the risk-free status of government bonds, and whether their ratings can weather the storm. Moody’s has waded into the debate by dividing its 18 triple-A countries into three categories.

At the top are 14 “resistant” triple-As, whose ratings aren’t being tested by the crisis, including Germany, France and Canada. The U.S. and the U.K. rank second as “resilient” triple-As. They face shocks to their economic model and very large contingent liabilities, but Moody’s thinks they can adjust.

Spain and Ireland, meanwhile, are “vulnerable,” based on their lack of ability to rebound. Ireland’s rating already has a negative outlook. Standard & Poor’s has downgraded Spain.

All of the sovereigns face mounting debt-to-GDP ratios, as debt issuance balloons and economic output declines.

Under Moody’s stress scenario, involving a further growth shock and permanently higher interest rates, interest payments for the U.S., U.K. and Ireland as a share of general government revenues would rise above 10% by the end of 2011 from 6.1%, 5.3% and 2.8%, respectively, at the end of 2007. Spain’s indicator would rise to over 5% from 3.9%.

The 10% barrier is crucial, as above this level debt service costs start to limit governments’ options. Double-A-rated Italy’s indicator was 10.7% at the end of 2007. Rome has admitted it can only respond in a limited way to the crisis because of its debt burden.

Japanese Bonds Fall With Rising Debt Sales

Feb. 16 (Bloomberg) — Japan’s 10-year bonds fell the most in a week on concern the government will spend more to revive an economy that shrank last quarter by the most since 1974.

Ten-year yields climbed from near a two-week low after the Cabinet Office said today the economy contracted at an annual 12.7 percent pace last quarter. Japan may expand its stimulus plans by 30 trillion yen ($323 billion)

Australian bonds also fell today as Prime Minister Kevin Rudd’s government steps up debt sales to finance economic packages. Australia’s government is selling as much as A$24 billion ($15.6 billion) of bonds by June 30 as it increases spending to avoid the nation’s first recession in 17 years.

Korean Auction

The South Korean government’s auction today of 10-year bonds failed to attracted sufficient demand for a second consecutive month. The government raised 584 billion won ($409 million) at the sale today, less than the 800 billion won it was seeking.

Japan’s debt burden is the largest among G-7 nations relative to GDP, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Italy’s debt is equal to 117 percent of GDP, while the other five countries are below 70 percent, the data show.

Obama’s Promises Of Open Ended US Borrowing Deters Buyers

The Wall Street Journal notes that:

Prices of government bonds started to fall Friday, ahead of the vote by the House of Representatives that approved the $789.5 billion stimulus package. This decline could be the beginning of the capitulation the market has been bracing for since the administration of President Barack Obama took over, with promises of a recession-era boom in government spending.

No sooner had lawmakers reached a compromise on this spending program than yet another began to take shape, this time to help homeowners avoid default on their mortgages. Though the dimensions of this package are unclear — details are expected Wednesday — the bottom line is unequivocal. Each new rescue plan signals an expansion of government borrowing and more bonds flooding the market, which absorbed a record $67 billion last week.

As we can see from the chart of the TLT, a proxy for the government long bond, the bond market has been selling off dramatically for weeks as the size of the stimulus package became clear.  Major foreign buyers of our debt, such as China, are bluntly questioning our ability to repay.  It is obvious to logical minds that there are constraints and consequences to a government’s determination to borrow money beyond its capacity to service the debt.   South Korea and Germany have already had failed bond auctions, with insufficient investor demand to buy all the debt offered.  Italy is so indebted already, it has given up trying to sell additional debt.  Rational investors do not lend money to borrowers judged incapable of servicing and repaying debt.

Courtesy StockCharts.com

US interest rates will continue to rise as Congress talks of further huge government borrowings.  Higher borrowing costs will severely strain government budgets.  The banking industry, corporate America and John Q Public all are demanding funding, bailouts and tax breaks.   Congress’s promises to bailout everyone and to “spend us into prosperity” with borrowed money will lead to financial disaster.  The out of control borrowing and spending will eventually result in the need for a bailout of the United States.  At that point, the issue of default by the United States will no longer constitute an academic discussion – it will be real and the cost will be unimaginable.   Hopefully, the ruling elite will not bring us to this final stage of national ruin.

Filed Under: Bailout, Economy, Government spending, Sovereign Default, Stimulus Plan Tagged With: , , , ,